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Milwaukee Brewers

Bet on the Milwaukee Brewers to Win Over 83.5 Games in 2019

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND 2019 OUTLOOK

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 83.4 wins. Their 95 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 38.7. They won 51 at home and were expected to win 44.7. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 89.9 wins and are projected to finish fourth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 88.3 wins. They are a contender with a 5.8% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 12.2% chance of reaching the Series. Even with the juice, they are a good futures betting value with championship odds of 18/1, 5.3% and odds to win the NL at 9/1, 10%.

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.62 which ranks #3 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #1. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #6 in road games.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

Situation Runs Batting Avg OPS
All 173 Games 4.6 (#7) 0.252 (#7) 0.603 (#4)
Road 4.5 (#7) 0.255 (#2) 0.619 (#3)
Home 4.7 (#5) 0.248 (#7) 0.592 (#6)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

Situation Runs Batting Avg OPS
All 4.0 (#3) 0.231 (#3) 0.551 (#2)
Road 4.0 (#6) 0.232 (#3 0.536 (#2)
Home 3.9 (#3) 0.229 (#2) 0.570 (#7)

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TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Brewers in all of their games would have earned a +907 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the run line, they have delivered a +635 profit risking 100 units on each game (86-76 PL). They are profitable against the run line at home and on the road.

Season Recap GS-GA Money Line Run Line Record O/U Record
All Games 4.6 – 4.1 95-67, +907 86-76, +635 78-80 50.6% Under
On Road 4.5 – 4.1 44-37, +795 47-34, +412 40-40 50% Over
At Home 4.7 – 4.0 51-30, +969 39-42, +223 38-40 51.3% Under
9/30 DET 11-0 Win +35 Covered -1.5 Over 9
9/29 DET 6-5 Win +37 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8.5
9/28 DET 6-5 Win +40 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8
9/26 @STL 2-1 Win +91 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8.5
9/25 @STL 12-4 Win +100 Covered +1.5 Over 8.5
9/24 @STL 6-4 Win +133 Covered +1.5 Over 8
9/23 @PIT 13-6 Win +69 Covered -1.5 Over 8.5
9/22 @PIT 0-3 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 7.5
9/21 @PIT 8-3 Win +74 Covered -1.5 Over 8
9/19 CIN 7-0 Win +57 Covered -1.5 Under 8.5
9/18 CIN 1-3 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 9
9/17 CIN 8-0 Win +56 Covered -1.5 Under 9
9/16 PIT 2-3 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8
9/15 PIT 1-3 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8.5
9/14 PIT 7-4 Win +66 Covered -1.5 Over 8.5
9/12 @CHC 5-1 Win +150 Covered +1.5 Under 8.5
9/11 @CHC 0-3 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Under 9
9/10 @CHC 3-2 Win +125 Covered +1.5 Under 8.5
9/9 SF 6-3 Win +69 Covered -1.5 Over 8
9/8 SF 4-3 Win +51 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8.5
9/7 SF 4-2 Win +54 Covered -1.5 Under 8.5
9/5 CHC 4-6 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8.5
9/4 CHC 11-1 Win +95 Covered +1.5 Over 9
9/3 CHC 4-3 Win +112 Covered +1.5 Under 8.5
9/2 @WAS 9-4 Win +83 Covered -1.5 Over 9.5
9/1 @WAS 4-5 Loss -100 Covered +1.5 Over 8.5
8/31 @WAS 4-1 Win +106 Covered +1.5 Under 9
8/30 @CIN 2-1 Win +71 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 9
8/29 @CIN 13-12 Win +68 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 9
8/28 @CIN 7-9 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 9
8/26 PIT 7-4 Win +78 Covered -1.5 Over 8.5
8/25 PIT 1-9 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8.5
8/24 PIT 7-6 Win +78 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8.5
8/22 CIN 4-0 Win +37 Covered -1.5 Under 9
8/21 CIN 7-9 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 9
8/20 CIN 5-2 Win +43 Covered -1.5 Under 9
8/19 @STL 2-1 Win +93 Covered +1.5 Under 8
8/18 @STL 2-7 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Over 8
8/17 @STL 2-5 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Under 8
8/15 @CHC 4-8 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Over 9
8/14 @CHC 7-0 Win +125 Covered +1.5 Under 9.5
8/12 @ATL 7-8 Loss -100 Covered +1.5 Over 8.5
8/11 @ATL 4-2 Win +100 Covered -1.5 Under 9
8/10 @ATL 1-10 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8.5
8/9 SD 4-8 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8.5
8/8 SD 8-4 Win +50 Covered -1.5 Over 8.5
8/7 SD 5-11 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8.5
8/5 COL 4-5 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Push 9
8/4 COL 8-4 Win +68 Covered -1.5 Over 8.5
8/3 COL 5-3 Win +79 Covered -1.5 Under 8.5
8/2 @LAD 5-21 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Over 7.5
8/1 @LAD 4-6 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Over 8
7/31 @LAD 1-0 Win +155 Covered +1.5 Under 8.5
7/30 @LAD 5-2 Win +128 Covered +1.5 Under 7.5
7/29 @SF 5-8 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Over 7.5
7/28 @SF 7-1 Win +87 Covered -1.5 Over 7.5
7/27 @SF 3-1 Win +113 Covered +1.5 Under 7
7/26 @SF 7-5 Win +102 Covered +1.5 Over 7.5
7/25 WAS 3-7 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 9.5
7/24 WAS 5-4 Win +77 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 9.5
7/23 WAS 6-1 Win +99 Covered +1.5 Under 9
7/22 LAD 2-11 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Over 8.5
7/21 LAD 4-2 Win +157 Covered +1.5 Under 8
7/20 LAD 4-6 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Over 9
7/15 @PIT 6-7 Loss -100 Covered +1.5 Over 7.5
7/14 @PIT 2-6 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 9
7/14 @PIT 1-2 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8.5
7/13 @PIT 3-7 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8
7/12 @PIT 3-6 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Over 8
7/11 @MIA 4-5 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 7.5
7/10 @MIA 8-4 Win +57 Covered -1.5 Over 8
7/9 @MIA 3-4 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8
7/8 ATL 10-3 Win +83 Covered -1.5 Over 8.5
7/7 ATL 1-5 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 9.5
7/6 ATL 5-4 Win +79 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8
7/5 ATL 7-2 Win +100 Covered -1.5 Over 8.5
7/4 MIN 3-2 Win +90 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8.5
7/3 MIN 2-0 Win +67 Covered -1.5 Under 8.5
7/2 MIN 6-5 Win +84 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8
7/1 @CIN 2-8 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 9
6/30 @CIN 3-12 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Over 9.5
6/29 @CIN 8-2 Win +110 Covered +1.5 Push 10
6/28 @CIN 6-4 Win +85 Covered -1.5 Over 9
6/27 KC 4-5 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8
6/26 KC 5-1 Win +45 Covered -1.5 Under 8
6/24 STL 2-8 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8.5
6/23 STL 2-3 Loss -100 Covered +1.5 Under 9
6/22 STL 2-1 Win +86 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8.5
6/21 STL 11-3 Win +85 Covered -1.5 Over 8.5
6/19 @PIT 3-2 Win +112 Covered +1.5 Under 8
6/18 @PIT 0-1 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 9
6/17 PHI 9-10 Loss -100 Covered +1.5 Over 8.5
6/16 PHI 1-4 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 9
6/15 PHI 13-2 Win +72 Covered -1.5 Over 8.5
6/13 CHC 1-0 Win +90 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8.5
6/12 CHC 4-0 Win +100 Covered -1.5 Under 9
6/11 CHC 2-7 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Over 8
6/10 @PHI 3-4 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8.5
6/9 @PHI 12-3 Win +101 Covered +1.5 Over 8
6/8 @PHI 12-4 Win +100 Covered +1.5 Over 8
6/6 @CLE 1-3 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Under 8.5
6/5 @CLE 2-3 Loss -100 Covered +1.5 Under 7.5
6/3 @CHW 1-6 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 9.5
6/2 @CHW 5-0 Win +62 Covered -1.5 Under 9
6/1 @CHW 3-8 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 9
5/30 STL 3-2 Win +105 Covered +1.5 Under 8.5
5/29 STL 1-6 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8.5
5/28 STL 8-3 Win +91 Covered -1.5 Over 9
5/27 NYM 8-7 Win +71 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 9
5/26 NYM 17-6 Win +69 Covered -1.5 Over 9.5
5/25 NYM 4-3 Win +108 Covered +1.5 Under 8
5/24 NYM 0-5 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8.5
5/23 ARI 9-2 Win +92 Covered -1.5 Over 8.5
5/22 ARI 1-0 Win +70 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 9
5/21 ARI 4-2 Win +120 Covered +1.5 Under 8
5/20 @MIN 1-3 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Under 9
5/19 @MIN 5-4 Win +99 Covered +1.5 Over 8.5
5/18 @MIN 8-3 Win +133 Covered +1.5 Over 9
5/16 @ARI 8-2 Win +93 Covered -1.5 Over 8.5
5/15 @ARI 1-2 Loss -100 Covered +1.5 Under 8
5/14 @ARI 7-2 Win +134 Covered +1.5 Over 8
5/13 @COL 7-3 Win +149 Covered +1.5 Under 10.5
5/12 @COL 0-4 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Under 11
5/11 @COL 11-10 Win +105 Covered +1.5 Over 11.5
5/10 @COL 5-2 Win +135 Covered +1.5 Under 11.5
5/9 CLE 2-6 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Push 8
5/8 CLE 3-2 Win +147 Covered +1.5 Under 8
5/6 PIT 0-9 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Push 9
5/5 PIT 5-3 Win +100 Covered +1.5 Under 8.5
5/4 PIT 4-6 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8.5
5/2 @CIN 3-1 Win +91 Covered -1.5 Under 9.5
5/1 @CIN 7-6 Win +83 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 9.5
4/30 @CIN 6-5 Win +83 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 9.5
4/29 @CHC 0-2 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Under 8.5
4/28 @CHC 0-3 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Under 7
4/27 @CHC 2-3 Loss -100 Covered +1.5 Under 7.5
4/26 @CHC 0-1 Loss -100 Covered +1.5 Under 8.5
4/25 @KC 6-2 Win +95 Covered -1.5 Under 8.5
4/24 @KC 5-2 Win +77 Covered -1.5 Under 9.5
4/22 MIA 4-2 Win +53 Covered -1.5 Under 9
4/21 MIA 6-5 Win +51 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 9
4/20 MIA 8-0 Win +65 Covered -1.5 Under 9
4/19 MIA 12-3 Win +54 Covered -1.5 Over 9
4/18 CIN 2-0 Win +71 Covered -1.5 Under 9
4/17 CIN 2-0 Win +65 Covered -1.5 Under 9
4/16 CIN 4-10 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 8
4/15 @NYM 2-3 Loss -100 Covered +1.5 Under 7
4/14 @NYM 5-1 Win +100 Covered +1.5 Under 8
4/13 @NYM 5-6 Loss -100 Covered +1.5 Over 8.5
4/11 @STL 3-2 Win +135 Covered +1.5 Under 9.5
4/10 @STL 3-5 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Over 7.5
4/9 @STL 5-4 Win +132 Covered +1.5 Over 8
4/8 CHC 0-3 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Under 8.5
4/7 CHC 2-5 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Under 9
4/6 CHC 5-4 Win +125 Covered +1.5 Over 8.5
4/5 CHC 0-8 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Under 9
4/4 STL 0-6 Loss -100 Run Line Loss +1.5 Under 9.5
4/3 STL 5-4 Win +93 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 9.5
4/2 STL 4-8 Loss -100 Run Line Loss -1.5 Over 9
3/31 @SD 7-3 Win +83 Covered -1.5 Over 8
3/30 @SD 8-6 Win +87 Covered -1.5 Over 8
3/29 @SD 2-1 Win +81 Run Line Loss -1.5 Under 8

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